We're less than a month away from March Madness so now is the time to take a look at which teams are close to making the 68-team NCAA Tournament, which ones are locks and which teams will end up the NIT, CB I or CIT tournaments. This is one of the most competitive seasons in the history of college basketball, with very few dominant teams, many good ones and a lot of them on the verge of being good.
Let's take a look at where the bubble teams stand at (before Wed, Feb. 15) with emphasis on strength of schedule and RPI. The RPI (Ratings Percentage Index) is a tool that the selection committee will look before they select their NCAA Tournament picks.
Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)
Who's in? Duke, and North Carolina.
Who needs help?: Florida State is 17-7 and 8-2 in the league with an RPI of 27 and a SOS of 19. They should be in with wins over UNC and Duke, but had a rough non-conference slate, so they're not quite in. A loss to an awful Boston College team did not help their cause.......Virginia (19-6, 6-5, RPI: 34) should be the fourth ACC team in the Dance if they don’t stumble down the stretch. They played well in the non-conference slate, which was soft. The SOS is a weak 100. A loss to Clemson on the road won't help. Might need to be UNC or Florida State now to get in...…Miami-Fla. (15-8, 6-4, RPI 35) has a decent shot after beating Duke on the road. They still have work to do but couldn't beat Florida State on the road last Saturday. A 1-6 record against RPI top 50 may not be enough.. Beating North Carolina at home could put them over the top…NC State (18-7, 7-3, RPI: 50)travels to Duke on Thursday and then faces Florida State and North Carolina at home. They are beating the teams they should beat but now must step it up a notch.
Atlantic Ten Conference:
Who's in? none.
Who needs help?: Temple (19-5, 8-2, RPI: 18) had a huge win over Duke and they are 13-2 since mid-December. They are 4-1 against top 50 RPI and 9-3 against top 100. Unless they completely collapse, they should be in.....St. Louis (20-5, 8-3, RPI: 22) beat lacks marquee wins but their RPI is very high. They are 9-4 against RPI top 100 and should make the tourney barring a collapse.....Xavier (16-9, 7-4, RPI: 56) has a strong win at Vanderbilt. They’ll need to finish strong. Big games coming up against Dayton but they will need to play well in A-10 trny to get in.
Big East Conference
Who's In? Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette
Who needs help?: .Connecticut (15-9, 5-7 BE, RPI: 20, SOS:1) has the top schedule in the nation. At some point, they are going to have to win some ballgames. The loss of coach Jim Calhoun (back) doesn’t help. They have a great RPI and are 5-5 against RPI top 50. They did have a nice win over Florida State, but they have a lot of work to do to get in.......West Virginia (16-10, 6-7, RPI: 41) had rough week and they are starting to slip. They are 3-7 against top 50 RPI and 9-9 against top 100. They have lost 5 of their last 6 and have to start turning it around or else.....Seton Hall (17-8, 6-7, RPI: 31) is turning it on down the stretch after beating Rutgers and Pitt. They might need a home win over Georgetown to put them over the top......Notre Dame (17-8, 9-3, RPI: 40) is all but in even with a low RPI. However, the win over UConn doesn't seem quite as strong but the win over Syracuse, even without Fab Melo was huge. They are also 6-4 against RPI top 50. They are very close to being a lock......Cincinnati (17-8, 7-5, RPI: 93) has a bad loss to Presbyterian that is weighing them down. And they are fading down the stretch. A bad RPI doesn’t help.
Big Ten Conference
Who's In? Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana.
Who needs help?.Northwestern (15-9, 5-6, RPI: 40) will need some work but they are on the bubble with wins over Illinois and Nebraska. They are just 4-9 against the top 100 RPI. They'll have Minnesota, Michigan and Ohio State at home to prove their case.....Illinois (16-9, 5-7, RPI: 47) beat Ohio State and Michigan State, but they have bad losses including a recent one against Northwestern. They’ve lost 6 of their last 7, which doesn’t help.....Minnesota (17-8, 5-7, RPI: 59) needs a better conference record to get in. A loss to Wisconsin meant that the still have just one win vs. a top-50 team., which is not good enough.....Purdue (16-9, 6-6, RPI: 54) is on the bubble because their numbers are marginal. They did beat Northwestern at home but their best win is over Temple on a neutral site. They do face Michigan State at home and Michigan and Indiana on the road.
Big 12 Conference
Who's In? Baylor, Kansas, Missouri
Who needs help?: Iowa State: (18-8, 8-5, RPI: 39) has jumped on the bubble but will need another win or two. They face Bayor at home and Kansas State and Missouri on the road. They did beat Kansas and Kansas State at home in a four-day span. That puts them in pretty good shape....Kansas State (17-8, 6-7, RPI: 63) has a weak conference record and is 6-9 against the RPI top 100. They did beat Kansas at home and wil lgo to Baylor and Missouri. They can't afford to go 6-9 in league play. They’ll need to finish strong....Texas (16-9, 6-6, RPI: 49) has a strong SOS of 18 but a mediocre conference record. They are just 3-8 versus top 100 RPI. Games at Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are crucial.
Mountain West Conference
Who's In? San Diego State, UNLV
Who needs help?: Colorado State (15-8, 4-4, RPI: 28) has a SOS of 10 but still some work to do.They lost at TCU on Saturday and will now face Wyoming, New Mexico, San Deog State and UNLV..........New Mexico (20-4, 6-2, RPI: 33) has a great record overall and a SOS of 118. They do have a 9-2 road record and are 6-3 vs. top-100 RPI teams. .......Wyoming: (18-6, 4-4, RPI:65) has a tougher road. A win over Colorado State would be big but they are still long shots.
Pac-12 Conference
Who's In? nobody.
Who needs help?: Arizona (18-8, 9-4, RPI: 68) has weak numbers but have a strong conference record. But their lack of strong non-conference wins means they'll need at least 20 wins and a great conference record to get in..... California (20-6, 10-3, RPI: 36) has the highest RPI in the league, which isn’t saying much for this league. But they have a strong conference record which doesn’t hurt. A win over UCLA doesn't mean a whole lot anymore. Will the Pac-10 take two teams?.....Colorado (17-8, 9-4, RPI: 75) has a couple of decent wins over Oregon State and Oregon. They are 0-3 vs. RPI Top50, which is not good. They are a real long shot right now despite conference record.….Washington (17-8, 10-3, RPI: 61) has a lot of talent and have finally started playing like it. They are 3-8 vs. RPI to 100 and has no top 50 RPI wins. Not good...Oregon (18-7, 9-4, RPI: 66) has a 96 SOS. They have to start winning games against quality competition to have any shot.
Southeastern Conference
Who's In? Florida, Kentucky,
Who needs help?: Vanderbilt (17-8, 6-4, RPI: 30) should be in with all their talent and experience. But they aren’t. After losing at home to Kentucky, they are 3-4 against RPI top 50. That game could have put them in . But they just need to beat Ole Miss or Georgia in next two games. .......Alabama (16-8, 5-5, RPI:32) is in big trouble. They are 2-4 vs. RPI Top 50 and just suspended leading scorers Tony Mitchell and JaMychael Green indefinitely......Mississippi State (19-6, 6-4, RPI: 44) lost to Georgia at home and they have a bad non-conf. SOS. But a solid 4-3 record vs. RPI top 50. They can't afford any more losses like Georgia......Arkansas (17-8, 5-5, RPI: 67) has a decent RPI and bad non-conference SOS numbers. They are 0-7 on the road and that's not good. They face LSU and Georgia on the road and if they can't win there, Mike Anderson's squad will probably going to the NIT.
Other teams: In: Southern Miss, St. Mary’s College, Murray State, Gonzaga, Wichita State.
Creighton (22-5, 12-4, RPI: 29) looked like they were in and then lost three in a row. The were destroyed by Wichita State at home. They may have too much pressure on F Doug McDermott. An easy win over Southern Illinois may have gotten them back on track on Tuesday.. ....Southern Miss (21-4, 8-2, RPI: 10) has a SOS of 40. They still have that huge win over Memphis. Their only losses took place against Memphis, Denver on the road and in double overtime to Murray State. But they need to keep winning while playing in Conf. USA........Memphis (18-7, 8-2, RPI: 19) has a SOS off 13 and no losses outside the RPI top 65. But they only have two real quality wins against Southern Miss and at Miami-Fla. They just need to take care of business in Conference USA.....Long Beach State (19-6, 12-0, RPI: 43) should probably win the Big West. But if they don’t, they have wins over Pitt and Xavier. They just need to keep winning even if their RPI keeps going down. They have one bad loss at Montana and a 102 SOS but 1 non-conference SOS. They face Creighton on the road in the BracketBusters.....Harvard (21-2, 7-1, RPI: 37)) lost to Princeton but still should win the conference if they hold on. Most bubble teams will be rooting for them to win the regular season because they have a great case as an at-large team....BYU (21-6, 9-3, RPI: 46) beat Gonzaga at home to give their biggest win of the year. They take on Gonzaga on the road (Feb. 23) and that would could put them in and that would mean three teams from the West Coast Conference....UCF (18-7, 7-4, RPI: 58) upset UConn in the Bahamas in November and has a win over Memphis at home. But they have some bad losses as well. They’ll have to finish strong in the C-USA, who might not get 3 in..