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Pro Basketball Free Picks: Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks

Free Pro Basketball Pick  

Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks

The Houston Rockets bring the highest-scoring squad in the NBA against one of the worst defensive teams in the league. Dallas will attempt to break a two-game home losing streak against one of their top rivals. Houston visits American Airlines Center in Dallas, Tx. to take on the Mavericks at 8:30pmET.

Current NBA Betting Odds:

The Dallas Mavericks are a 2-point betting odds favorite. The betting odds opened at Dallas -2 and remained there in most books. The total opened at 223 in most books and moved to 221 in most books.

Most recent games

Houston (33-28 SU, 33-27-1 ATS, 34-27 O/U) has won two straight including a 136-103 home win over Dallas on March 3, laying 5.5 points. 

Dallas (26-33 SU, 34-25 ATS, 35-23-1 O/U) lost four of their last five games and covered two of five. Four of their last five matchups went under the total bet 

Recent Matchups:

Last game (3/3/13) Houston (-5.5) over Dallas, 136-103. Houston has lost five straight trips to Dallas and have only covered two of the last 10 games against the Mavericks.

Can Dallas defend Houston's three-pronged attack?

Houston star James Harden scored 80 points in three games against the Mavericks this season. O.J. Mayo did a decent job on the 6-foot-5 lefthander, as Harden only played 30 minutes in the game on Sunday. The Rockets didn't need Harden to score 40 points since they put up 136. Chandler Parsons led the Rockets with 32 points including making 12-of-13 from the field and 6-of-7 from the three-point arc.

Jeremy Lin added 21 points and nine assists on 8-of-14 shooting. The Rockets shot 57.5 percent from the field and 14-of-34 from beyond the arc. They even outrebounded Houston, 45-32 led by 10 rebounds from center Omer Asik. Houston's newest addition-rookie Thomas Robinson-added 10 points and eight rebounds off the bench. That just gives the Rockets some more help up front and younger legs against a lineup that features aging Dirk Nowitzki, Shawn Marion and Chris Kaman. They just can't keep up with the Parsons, Asik (7-0, 255) and Donatas Montiejunas (7-0, 222).

Key betting trends:

Houston is: 
  • 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference.
  • 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
  • 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
  • 10-3 ATS in their last 13 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • 19-7 ATS in their last 26 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a S.U. win.
  • 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS win.
Dallas is:
  • 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.

The Rockets are too quick and deep for the Mavericks

Houston not only traded for Thomas Robinson but just added veteran point guard Aaron Brooks. The veteran backup was waived by Sacramento on Friday and practiced with the Rockets on Tuesday. He provides leadership and solid defense behind Jeremy  Line. 

The Rockets have won two straight to move a half-game ahead of the Jazz into seventh place in the West. Dallas will be up for revenge but they have to do a better job defending Parsons (6-9, 227), who is averaging 24.3 points per game in the last four games and has made an insane 16 of 28 3-point attempts.

Nowitzki scored just eight against the Rockets and 10 against Memphis on February 27. He appears to be wearing down though he could bounce back at home. The problem is chasing down the young Rockets, who love to shot the three and force the seven-footer with bad knees to defend the perimeter.

Wednesday's Pro Basketball Free Picks: Go with the Houston Rockets over Dallas Mavericks

(ATS' Free Picks are strong this season, hitting close to 57%. But for our top selections that hit over 70% of our big games lifetime, check out ATSwins.com's Lock Club, which has won nearly 50 units the last two weeks.  Click here for more information)
Posted in: NBA

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